Search results for "Inflation targeting"
showing 10 items of 10 documents
Fiscal Adjustment and Business Cycle Synchronization
2013
Using a panel of annual data for 20 countries we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked, especially in the case of fiscal adjustments lasting 2 or 3 years. We also find: (i) little evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles.
Interest rates, expectations and the credibility of the Bank of Spain
1995
The purpose of the paper is to pinpoint the date of the change of monetary policy regime which occurred in Spain during the year 1984, when it moved away from controlling monetary aggregates towards interest rate targeting. The most likely date for the change is estimated and, surprisingly, there is evidence that agents learned about the new intermediate target quite rapidly.A week after the change, the term structure of interest rates showed how market agents attributed much more informational content to interest rate changes than they had previously. Two types of transitions are tried: a one-step and a gradual logistic swithing function.
The Interplay between Money Market Development and Changes in Monetary Policy Operations in Small European Countries, 1980-2000
2006
We study the interplay between money market development and changes in monetary policy operating procedures in 11 European countries from c. 1980 up to the launch of the EMU. Aspects of money market development such as size and structure of different market segments, and institutional and regulatory changes, are addressed. We recount and empirically examine the reorientation of monetary policy instruments away from quantitative direct control instruments towards indirect market-based instruments.The process of deregulation is uniform across countries. The path of money market development varies substantially, whereas changes in central bank instruments show both similarities and differences…
Rethinking Monetary Policy with Reference to Monetary Circuit Theory
2011
Standard monetary policy is grounded in the quantity theory of money, which links changes in the general price level to excess money that would induce excess demand on the goods market. This article shows that this theoretical foundation is misleading and harmful to growth. This is so because price determination is multifaceted. Central banks, especially the European Central Bank, currently tighten credit conditions whereas money is not an issue. In this way, they act not only on demand but also on the supply of goods. The additional reference made to rational expectations is an aggravating factor. Is there another way to conduct monetary policy? In this article it is argued that circuit th…
The P* model and its performance for the Spanish economy
2000
The performance of the P∗ model is tested as an inflation forecaster for the Spanish economy. It is shown that log-run relationships work as expected according to the model and the Quantitative Theory of Money. The Error Correction Model constructed by using the gap between actual prices and the long-term equilibrium price level as an error correction term, offers a consistent explanation for the short-run dynamics in prices. On the other hand, the P∗ approach shows a forecasting ability similar to that presented for other countries in several studies, although the degree of accuracy in the prediction is not specially satisfactory, mainly for the period 1989:3- 1992:3, when the credibility …
Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Trade-off Between Output Gap and Inflation Variability?
2002
We utilize a stochastic volatility model to analyse the possible effects of inflation targeting on the trade–off between output gap variability and inflation variability. We find that the adoption of inflation targets (in New Zealand, Australia, Canada, the UK, Sweden and Finland) might result in a more favourable monetary policy trade–off (except in Australia and Finland). This conclusion is reached by comparing, first, the economic performance of targeting countries in the 1980s and the 1990s; and second, the economic performance in the 1990s of targeting and non–targeting countries (the USA, Japan, Switzerland, Germany, France and the Netherlands). We focus on two possible explanations f…
Monetary Policy from a Circuitist Perspective
2007
As Arestis says, circuit theory is ‘a strong component of the endogenous money thesis’ (1996: 113). This notably means that circuitists endorse the original Post Keynesian dismissal of the orthodox Monetarist approach to monetary policy by which the quantity of money in the economy should be regulated so as to stifle inflationary pressures. From the endogenous view, money creation is, in Moore’s words (1988), ‘credit-driven’, meaning that money is demanded by the general public and firms to finance spending which is dependent upon prices and money wages. Hence it is prices and money wages that are factors determining the amount of money created and not the contrary. This led Post Keynesian …
Deficit sustainability and inflation in EMU: An analysis from the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
2007
Price determination theory typically focuses on the role of monetary policy, while the role of fiscal policy is usually neglected. From a different point of view, the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level takes into account monetary and fiscal policy interactions and assumes that fiscal policy may determine the price level, even if monetary authorities pursue an inflation targeting strategy. In this paper we try to test empirically whether the time path of the government budget in EMU countries would have affected price level determination. Our results point to the sustainability of fiscal policy in all the EMU countries but Finland, although no firm conclusions can be drawn about the prevalence…
A Long Term View on the Short Term Co-movement of Output and Prices in a Small Open Economy
2012
- One assumption behind inflation targeting as objective for monetary policy is that inflation rates in the short run to some extent reflect output cycles. The present paper investigates the historical co-movements of output and prices for a small open raw material based economy, in this case Norway 1830 – 2006. Looking at contemporaneous movements we find more often negative correlations between the two variables than positive. The correlations do not give any evidence of causality. However, they may indicate that supply side shocks, often caused by the foreign sector, were more important for historical output cycles in Norway than assumed hitherto
HOW DO FISCAL CONSOLIDATION AND FISCAL STIMULI IMPACT ON THE SYNCHRONIZATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES?
2016
Using quarterly data for a panel of advanced economies, we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked. We also find: (i) some evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles. Global factors, such as a rise in global risk aversion and uncertainty and a reversal of nonstandard expansionary monetary policy, can also reduce the degree of co-movement of busi…